Why the Opinion Polls were Wrong (and an inquiry won’t help)

Why the Opinion Polls were Wrong (and an inquiry won’t help)

It’s official, the opinion polls conducted in the run up to the UK general election were wrong – even the polling companies have said so. The good news is that there is going to be an inquiry into the pollsters’ failures. The bad news is that this is going to be carried out by the British Polling Council – an organisation that clearly has a vested interest in perpetuating the use of opinion polls. This is a much like asking the Astrological Association of Great Britain (and yes, there is one) to conduct an inquiry into why your horoscope has no useful insight into your future. If your starting assumption is that there is a relationship between astronomical phenomena and events in the human world you aren’t going to be looking for answers with complete objectivity. Similarly, if you believe that people can reliably predict their future actions and will […]

Using Morphine to Improve Survey Results

Using Morphine to Improve Survey Results

Back when I was a market research manager at Pizza Hut I sat through several research debriefs where a shot of morphine might well have made the experience more bearable. Invariably it was having tracking study results that caused me the greatest pain: hearing about how the globally-bestowed brand metrics had meandered in the past six months was never my favourite way to pass the time.  I never could find a link between what we heard and what the real business figures told us was going on, beyond the blindingly obvious changes in awareness when we had an ad campaign on air. However, to the best of my knowledge, doctors won’t prescribe opiates for such situations.  It’s another domain entirely where survey results and pain avoidance have recently coincided in a fascinating way. Research by doctors at the Cedars Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, California, examined the correlation between […]

The Rights and Wrongs of Cheating Customers

The Rights and Wrongs of Cheating Customers

“Woah there mule!” as Yosemite Sam used to say, am I suggesting that it can be ‘right’ to cheat customers? Yes, I am (kind of).  Let me explain. I recently had a complaint about a product.  A few years ago I purchased a heart rate monitor watch and, the other day, when I went to use it the strap simply disintegrated. Now I know that the product gets used in a tough environment; there’s no easy way to say this other than things get pretty sweaty when you’re working out.  But I’d always rinsed the watch off and, anyway, coping with sweat is a prerequisite for something worn next to the skin for exercise.  Whilst we’re at it, the band that goes around my chest looks like new, so it’s not as if we’re beyond the capability of modern plastics.  If they can put a man on the moon… and […]

Why Market Researchers Shouldn’t Read Consumer.ology

The title the ‘International Journal of Market Research’ (IJMR) sounds undeniably impressive.  Generally speaking journals are good things, bringing together peer reviewed papers from people pushing the boundaries in a particular field. But I wonder… do astrologers have a Journal of Astrology?  Google suggests that they do, sort of – it looks as though it might just be one astrologer selling predictions. There’s a National Journal of Homeopathy – I wonder, to paraphrase Tim Minchin, if they’ve had any papers on how water forgets about the wee and poo it’s had in it and just remembers the traces of medicinally advantageous ingredients? My point is that it’s easy to get a false sense of validity from a name.  In Consumer.ology I describe market research as a pseudo-science and, arguably, having an ‘International Journal’ is all part of the industry’s mystique. I must declare a personal interest at this point: recently […]