Consumer Behaviour

Once upon a time there was a country.

They were having a very difficult time indeed.  Some greedy goblins had got out of control and now everyone in the land was troubled.  The money that the greedy goblins had taken had somehow disappeared, some said they had taken money that never existed, and now everyone was having to repay it whether it ever existed or not.

Everyone except the goblins that is, who had somehow found a way to get more money  for themselves – but that’s another  story.

Anyway, the country had a democratic process of sorts, of which it was most proud.  And in the midst of the “difficult time” it replaced one leader with another one, who thought things should be done a little differently.  This was done through something called “voting”, where those who wanted to shape what the country did explained their ideas and then people got to say which person they wanted to represent them when the decisions about what to do were made.

Some people didn’t vote.  Either because they had no interest in what was happening or because none of those asking for their votes said anything that impressed them – it’s hard to know which, but you could always “not vote” and some argued that it was the degree to which people “not voted” that really influenced the results.

But then there was a problem: the country also had other voting, not for the top job, but for the people who voted on what the leader proposed to do in the “difficult times”.  This voting was to make sure that the view of the people doing the voting was always current – it could keep the leader on track.  This seemed very fair.  And it would have been, were it not for the Opinion Pollsters.

The Opinion Pollsters were a fidgety bunch.  They didn’t like to wait for the voters to decide and hear the result.  They liked to find out in advance.

This was quite curious because the people doing the voting often changed their mind quite a lot, or else didn’t vote at all: in any event, very often what the people told the Pollsters turned out not to be the real result after all.

But that didn’t stop the Pollsters.

In fact, something very unfortunate happened.  The Pollsters started to influence what happened in the real voting.

To be fair, this wasn’t entirely the Pollsters’ fault.  Whilst it would have been nice if they had pointed out how hopelessly inaccurate their opinion polls were (especially when they were conducted quite a long time ahead of the real vote), they earned their money from conducting opinion polls, so that would have been asking a lot.

The Media Moguls were really calling the shots.  They too had seen how unreliable the opinion polls were, but that didn’t stop them running them as the headline story when what they showed reflected what they wanted them to say. 

When the people who thought they could represent other people well, heard from the Media Moguls’ polls that they were going to be crushed in the voting, they got scared.  They decided they didn’t want to be humiliated and began to talk about not competing for votes in the way they usually would.

They forgot about the importance of giving people a democratic choice; they were convinced by what the Media Moguls and Opinion Pollsters had told them that the people didn’t want them.  But they forgot not only that the opinion polls were often wrong, but also that things changed: a new attack on the country, a discovery that someone who wanted to represent the people was actually not a “nice person”, or a shift in the country’s financial fortunes, might all change how people felt and which way they voted.

But the Media Moguls and Opinion Pollsters didn’t worry about that: they liked the sort of voting that they could edit, shape and selectively publish that came from opinion polls, much  more than the kind that took place on a given date and with everyone taking part  (except those who didn’t want to) and everyone getting the results at the same time.

The Media Moguls understood that people could be like sheep and would follow the crowd if they were given enough reassurance that the crowd had decided something.  In other lands this approach to influencing the flock had caused all sorts of horrors – horrors that are far too unpleasant for this fairy tale.

And so the democracy about which the country was so proud  was killed.

But no one really noticed and they all lived happily everafter (especially the Media Moguls, Opinion Pollsters and, for some strange reason, the goblins).

Philip Graves

Philip Graves market research democracy, market research, opinion polls, philip graves

The path to writing a book and getting it published is, without doubt, one that winds a lot.

On the way there will be plenty of dead-ends and no shortage of obstacles to circumnavigate.

However, what makes all the anguish worthwhile, are the moments that result from starting out and that are every bit as gratifying as the writer’s block, rejection letters and suggested revisions are aggravating.

I find there are usually three ways to deal with virtually any situation in life: ignore it and carry on regardless, take it badly or use it for inspiration.  It’s no coincidence that there really was something to learn from each ‘bad’ moment along the way.

Writer’s block: (which I hardly ever got) you’re trying to hard, go and do something else for a bit, or skip this section for now, it’s obviously not flowing.

Rejection letters: there’s always a lot of luck involved, but are you sure you’ve sent the book to the people who are most likely to have an interest in it?

‘Suggested’ Revisions: the biggest benefit of having a publisher is someone else who cares about your book almost as much as you do looking at it objectively.  Every single one of the suggestions my publisher and editor put to me have made the book better.  I confess that, once or twice, I had to count to ten, because I thought the book was finished.  Fortunately I made it to the last finger on the second hand, started to look at what they were advocating without the frustration from the process and the book was better for it.

And what about those moments that make it all worthwhile?  I’m reliably told that having the first copy in your hand is one of them, but I’ve not reached that point yet.  Thus far the highlights have been:

• Realising I had the structure of a book that excited me: you’re going to be working on it for a while, so you need to keep yourself interested!
• Every five thousand word threshold as I wrote.
• Finishing the first draft and seeing that I had written a book (even if I did have no clue whether anyone would be interested enough in it to publish it).
• Getting a meeting with a publisher.
• Walking through the door of the publishers.
• Receiving a contract.
• Getting a cheque for the first part of the advance.
• Seeing the cover for the first time.

And here is that cover….

Consumer.ology

It’s still making me smile….

Philip Graves

Philip Graves Getting a Book Published book, consumer behaviour, consumer.ology, market research

It’s been a few weeks since I’ve updated you on the trials and tribulations of getting a book into print.

Just to recap, I’d opted for the route of getting a publisher for various reasons, and since that time have been submitting my book to a number of publishers and some literary agents.

I submitted the book to just three literary agents and three publishers.  With hindsight I think the decision to move from pursuing literary agents to publishers was an astute one: publishers have, by necessity, a broader interest sphere than literary agents. 

From what I gather, I have been extremely fortunate in finding a publisher after so few attempts – I hope some of what I’ve learned along the way and covered in previous blogs helps any of you looking to have a book published.

No doubt I’ve been extremely lucky.

I was lucky to be inspired to write the book by my friend Jay Wright, who showed me that it was possible to decide to write a book and then go ahead an do it: his book GAS is self-published through Lulu.com. 

I was lucky to be encouraged and mentored by Kevin Hogan – an established author.

I was lucky to find Francis – my benevolent literary adviser.

I was lucky that someone I sent my book to recommended I send it to Nicholas Brealey Publishing.

I was lucky that Nicholas Brealey Publishing wanted to publish it and luckier still, given some of the stories that one hears, that the team I’ve met there are nice people who challenge me to make my book the best it can be, whilst being supportive of what I’m doing.

My book will be published in June.  It’s called Consumer.ology: The Market Research Myth, the Truth About Consumer Behaviour and the Psychology of Shopping.

As you can probably imagine – I’m absolutely delighted.

Philip Graves

Philip Graves Getting a Book Published

As I mentioned last time, I’ve only once found an impromptu use for my understanding of consumer behaviour and consumer psychology, and I certainly never anticipated that a situation might arise where market research might make a difference between life and death.

But that just shows how little I know.

Recently, the UK government has announced that 10% of hospital (NHS Trust) funding will be dependent on patient satisfaction levels.  To put that in financial terms, that could mean around £10billion of expenditure will be dependent on patient satisfaction.

And here’s the thing.  This is, in my opinion, the most profoundly stupid example of using market research that I have ever encountered: it’s going to result in lives being lost.

Let’s go back a few years, before any of us had heard of MRSA or any of the other so-called super-bugs that are resistant to antibiotics and kill people.

How many patients would have walked out of a hospital thinking, “There was a risk of me contracting a life-threatening bacterial infection in that hospital, I’d better market them down to a 5 out of 10.”

Ah, you may say, but people might have said the hospital wasn’t very clean.

That’s true.  But against what standard of cleanliness are patients judging the hospital?  Most of us are fortunate enough not to visit hospitals too often, so can we really judge what properly, hygienically clean looks like?

Of course, now that we’ve been primed to think about something as important as super-bugs we’re very sensitive to how clean a hospital looks.  But we don’t know how effectively they are controlling this type of infection from what we see; that requires expert testing.

It might be useful to know what people are actually doing in the hospital.  Are they reporting toilets that they find are dirty?  Are they cleaning up after themselves effectively where they can?  Are they washing their hands properly?  Are they using the special sanitising products provided?  Are they only coming to the hospital as visitors when they know they aren’t carrying a cold or stomach bug?

There is no shortage of evidence to show that people are hopelessly poor at reporting this sort of information accurately – not that, as far as I know, anyone is proposing to ask them what they are doing.  It’s all about what  they think.

I don’t think the NHS is perfect – far from it.  But I don’t think that I know how to judge how it’s performing in totality.

If someone happens to go for an out-patient appointment and is kept waiting for two hours they would feel bad.  In completing a survey they would probably exhibit be a ‘halo effect’ whereby they misattribute that bad feeling to many aspects of their experience.  Now if the delay was caused because the doctor in question was saving a life elsewhere would the patient realise?

Individual patients don’t have the perspective or the expertise to judge how well a hospital is performing.  But these inexpert, myopic opinions, when collected in their thousands and pressed together in a report, take on a gravity that is totally out of proportion to the base data.

And people will almost certainly die as a result.

Money will be wasted.  It will be wasted on the survey process itself.  It will be wasted on implementing the wrong solutions.  It will be wasted because the hospitals will invest in playing the game – anticipating what they think patients will want to see and hear to give them good scores.

All of these will drive money away from the expert evaluation of hospital effectiveness, drug funding and objective decision-making that should be taking place on the basis of managers doing the best job they can, as experts in the hospitals they are tasked to run.

You may never hear someone say, “Market research saved my life”, but if you’re unfortunate enough to need the UK’s National Health Service and not get the care you need, market research might just be responsible for you not living.

Philip Graves

Philip Graves consumer behaviour, consumer research, market research 10%, consumer behaviour, consumer psychology, market research, National Health Service, NHS, patient satisfaction

Be honest, how many of you thought you would ever read that as a headline?

As someone who has worked in and around what is generally known as “market research” for twenty years I was always slightly disappointed that I didn’t have a job that might be called upon dramatically.

“Help!!! Is there a market researcher on the plane?” Is not a phrase I ever expected to hear.

As a brief aside, I was once able to put my consumer behaviour skills to good use with strangers: I was taking a train with a friend and a number had been cancelled, resulting in the sorts of over-crowding that’s not permitted for the transportation of any other mammal.

We’d failed to get on two trains and watched two passengers almost come to blows as one attempted to compress an over-crowded carriage.

When the third train arrived we saw a tiny space, possibly only an illusion based on sixty people inhaling simultaneously, but decided we had to go for it.  Just then two people started fighting their way OFF the train that we wanted to get on.  They were at their intended station and were struggling to get through the packed groups of people between their place and the train doors.

As they made it through they were defiantly angry at the people they felt were blocking their route – in fact they just had no space to move into to get out of their way, and no one was planning on stepping off this train that they had worked so hard to get on to.

My friend and I, emboldened by a sense of mathematical justice – two people had now got off the train, their hadto be room for two more – pushed into the crowd.  Whilst the people we were now pressed against weren’t exactly happy about it, they also had seen the people get off and were, I suspect, torn between personal discomfort and resignation at the fact we were only re-balancing a distasteful equation.

After my friend broke the silence with a cheery “Hello” a conversation sprang up in our area of the carriage – an extraordinarily rare event on any form of London public transport.  After laughing about the fact that a train operator wouldn’t think to have drivers for all the trains they were operating the conversation turned to contrasting the general bonhomie of my friend and I with the couple who had only moments earlier escaped the packed carriage: why, one of my travelling companions asked, had they been unhappy to leave a crowded train whilst we were happy to be on it.

“Ah ah,” I said, pleased that my consumer psychology skills were at last coming in handy in an impromptu situation, “it’s the psychology of loss aversion!  The people getting off the train were anxious about losing out because they want to get home by getting off the train.  My friend and  I were afraid we would lose out by not getting onto a train and not getting home.  So the same psychological mechanism that makes us happy makes them unhappy because of the context.”

So, personally, I’ve been slightly useful but not saved any lives.  Which brings me back to the title of this blog: Market Research Saved My Life!  Has that happened?  Could it happen?  What would you spend on it if it could?

I’ll tell you next time!

Philip Graves

Philip Graves Uncategorized, consumer behaviour consumer behaviour, loss aversion, market research, train travel

There’s no escaping the fact that Tiger Woods’ personal life has become very public in the last couple of  days.

But what, you may well ask, could his “transgressions” possibly have to do with consumer behaviour or market research?

The answer is in Tiger’s statement after his private life became monumentally public.  Here’s what he said on his website:

“I have let my family down and I regret those transgressions with all of my heart. I have not been true to my values and the behavior my family deserves.”

Now none of us can say whether this is what Tiger Woods really feels, or whether this is just the best thing he can think to say in the position he has found himself.  But for the purposes of this post, let’s take Tiger at his word.

He has not been true to his values.

Market research is frequently preoccupied with asking people what they think.  What are their attitudes (something very closely linked to their values)?

And here is classic example of something we all are manifestly capable of: our behaviour not matching our values.  Our attitudes and values are what we like to tell ourselves about how we are; our behaviour is how we actually are.

When it comes to understanding consumers what would you rather know?  What people like to tell themselves or what they really do?  I promise you there is, more often than not, a world of difference between the two.

I believe it’s a very important distinction.  I suspect Tiger Woods’ wife might be struggling to reconcile the two because most people like to think that there is a strong connection between values, attitudes and behaviour.

I’m not criticising Tiger Woods’ actions because I have no idea what he did or what circumstances surrounded it (and, frankly, it’s none of my business), but if Mrs Woods wants to know what Tiger’s values are she will find out from his behaviour not his words.

Philip Graves

Philip Graves consumer behaviour, consumer research consumer behaviour, market research, Tiger Woods, Transgressions

I was working at a client’s store, watching customers for a few hours as I do, but I wished I had been watching my car instead.

It was parked just outside the store, but whilst I was figuring out what was going on in the minds of people looking at products on the shelves, some thieving so-and-so was helping themself to the wing mirror from my car.

My first reaction on seeing part of my car missing was to imagine what would have happened had I seen the thief at work on my car: for a moment I saw myself running across, tapping him on the shoulder and then beating his skull on the side of my vehicle.

However, this fantasy was soon interrupted by a dose of healthy pragmatism: I’m not that brave, I haven’t assaulted anyone since I was in a playground fight at the age of ten and given the way of the world it’s perfectly possible that the person who thought nothing of stealing part of my car would have thought equally little of hurting me.  On reflection it was for the best that I didn’t see the act in progress.

But the loss of my wing mirror did give me a fascinating insight into human behaviour.  I occupy a strange world where, because I spend so much time analysing the consumer psychology I’m observing, I can sometimes analyse my own unconscious behaviour by observing my own actions and reactions.

So what did I learn and how might it be useful in terms of consumer behaviour?

1. Old (unconsciously programmed) habits die hard.

I had to drive an hour home with no wing mirror.  I knew that I didn’t have one – it was a source of considerable annoyance.  Had anyone asked me if I knew my wing mirror was missing I would probably have directed some of my anger at the thief at them.  But… did that stop me looking at the space where it used to be every time I changed lanes? Of course not.

Similarly, where consumer behaviour is established through repeated actions it will take a huge intervention to change it.

2. Fear is a Great Motivator

With my mirror gone I needed a new strategy for changing lanes.  I realised that I usually used a combination of the rear view mirror and wing mirror when looking for a gap in the traffic.  With the wing mirror gone it was feasible to only use the rear view mirror: by looking for a space behind I could see the gap and extrapolate accurately where it would be when I changed lanes.  However, I needed the reassurance of seeing there was nothing in the space I was moving into: so every time I was about to change I had to look over my shoulder before I could make the progress I wanted to on my journey. 

In the same way, consumers need to get past any fears their unconscious mind throws up before they can get to the pleasurable part of buying.

3. Familiar Wins Over Better

Whilst this blind-spot-free method of looking over my shoulder should have been more reassuring I was cursing the fact that I had to do it each time; partly because I was cursing the fact that some git had pinched my mirror.  But what really irked me was that the good (i.e. safe, dependable and efficient) means of checking that I’d been using for over twenty years was no longer available.   [I should point out that my car's mirror did have a blind-spot eliminator - although these still leave a small blind-spot.]

Often companies will get frustrated that a customer won’t buy their product when they ‘know’ it is better than the competitors’: it’s important to factor in how familiar an alternative product is too.

So there you have it; I managed to find some useful reminders from an annoying situation.  I also managed to find a new replacement mirror and fit it myself for £22.00 (rather than the £150 that BMW wanted to do the job).

So if I do find someone helping themselves to part of my car again it may simplest for all concerned if I give them the money… then whilst they’re surprised I can smash their head against the side of my car

Philip Graves

Philip Graves consumer behaviour BMW, consumer behaviour

Getting a book published shouldn’t be like going to the doctors, but it is.

You know how it is; something doesn’t seem right so you go to the doctor and part of you thinks, “I’ll ask him (or her) what’s wrong and then I’ll know.”

But of course that isn’t what happens.

The doctor isn’t sure. So you get sent for tests.

“When I get the test results I’ll know…”

Except the test results are inconclusive, or else they point to something that there isn’t really anything they can give you.

And so it goes on.

There I was thinking there would be a “we love your book” moment from a publisher and a big party, but it hasn’t worked out that way.

Instead I got a very nice email saying that a publisher would like to discuss my book with me.

Don’t get me wrong, this is GREAT NEWS, but it’s not a ‘moment’ of revelation.

So having met them and discussed the book they’ve asked me to consider putting a slightly different slant on it.  It would mean more writing, but I happen to think this publisher is right, the changes would make for a better book.

I need to work on a revised submission.

That moment isn’t here yet, but it could just be a little bit closer!

Philip Graves

Philip Graves Getting a Book Published

Last night I watched Channel 4’s documentary in which American school teacher Jane Elliot conducted a demonstration of how racism feels by dividing a group of volunteers along lines of eye colour and discriminating against the blue-eyed group.

From the outset the blue-eyed group were treated badly by Ms Elliot, being put down and ridiculed by the fierce moderator herself, segregated into an uncomfortable room for two hours, before being put with the brown-eyed group who she had attempted to prime to treat the blue-eyed group as inferior.

Her original aim had been to demonstrate to her own class of all white children how it felt to be discrminated against for something as arbitrary as eye-colour is unfair and illogical.  She described that in her original exercise… “I watched how what had been marvelous, wonderful, thoughtful, co-operative children turn into nasty, viscous, discriminating little third-graders.” 

Leaving aside how unethical her experiment with the school children placed in her care may have been psychologically, the programme provided a fascinating insight into human behaviour, though to my eyes not the one Jane Elliot intended.

The difficulty is that confirmation bias is part of the human condition.  One of the brown-eyed group who contained a number of non-white people who were very sensitive to the focal issue of the exercise, explained to the blue-eyed group that they could have no idea what it would feel like to be standing at a shop counter, next in line, and be ignored in deference to someone else who was behind you in the queue because of the colour of your skin.

[It's probably fair to say that the exercise was compromised by the fact that the blue-eyed group was all white and the brown-eyed group predominantly non-white.]

Of course, most people have been over-looked in a queue whatever the colour of their skin; the issue is to what one attributes the event and what significance one attaches to it.  I’m not saying it doesn’t happen as a result of racism, or in any way excusing something so abhorrent, but the issue is as much one of racial sensitivity in the part of the ‘victim’ as it is racism on the part of the ‘perpetrator’.

For me the programme was much more interesting as an exercise in group behaviour; all of the problems that make market research focus group were in evidence: polarised opinions, people moderating their position before becoming more extreme when they felt support existed for their stance, and so on.

The most positive aspect of the exercise were the people who refused to be drawn into it.  One of the blue-eyed group stood up to the bullying Ms Elliot and was made to leave so as to enable the exercise to continue.  His willingness to stand up to authority in an environment in which someone else was clearly controlling and authoritative is what gives me hope for society.

Most impressive of all was Wanda Summers, a brown-eyed shop manager who despite staying with the process for the duration of the exercise found it so unpleasant, upsetting and unjust that, after battling with her conscience for several hours elegantly undermined the exercise by revealing to the whole group that the brown-eyed people had been given the answers to a test in advance.

Here was someone who couldn’t and wouldn’t sit silently by when injustice was taking place.

She was, in the edit of the programme shown, the only one of the brown-eyed group to do this, but even so it was enormously heartening to see.

Society hasn’t come anywhere near to resolving the problems of racial divide and, given that we humans have a long and lousy history of fear and abuse towards other races, nations and creeds, it’s inevitably going to take some time. 

But I can’t help believing that what the world needs is more Wanda Summers, not more Jane Elliots.  Is there an exercise someone can design to create more people like her, I wonder?

Philip Graves

Philip Graves Uncategorized Channel 4, group behaviour, How Racist Are You, human behaviour, Jane Elliot, racism, Wanda Summers

OK, I’ve used a little hyperbole in the title of this blog, I’ll admit.  There is no perfect submission letter because each submission you send is going in front of a different pair of eyes.

But I think there are some very important points to consider and at the end I’ll tell you my own idea of what might help tip the balance when you send your dream off to a publisher.

Firstly, and most importantly, check whether the publisher you are writing to has a preference for what a submission contains.  Many of them do.  Of course, you don’t have to follow it slavishly, but you need to work within their parameters and find a way to stand out without appearing to have ignored their wishes.  When you get published you’ll be working with your publisher and demonstrating you can’t pay attention to their needs isn’t a recipe for success.

Next make sure the working title is clearly stated.  I suggest describing it as a ‘working title’; if someone has a better one you should be open to it even if it does feel like the equivalent of renaming your child.

Then say how long the book will be (A4 double spaced pages and word count) and whether or not it is finished yet.

Your synopsis should be short; think in terms of the back cover of a book.  If you can’t wrap it up succinctly perhaps it isn’t clear enough.  You need to get the idea over in a paragraph or two – no more.

It might also be helpful to say why the world needs your book – what will it do.

Make it clear who the book is targeting and be clear in your own mind how attractive a market this is likely to be to your publisher.  Look at the titles they currently publish and who they are targeted at.  Hopefully the fit is good, otherwise expect a rejection letter: publishers like to play to their strengths (a sensible approach if you think about it).

Don’t be afraid to point out your books competitors.  In the world of publishing competing titles are often a good thing rather than a bad one.  They show that there is a market for the subject matter and publishers, like the rest of us, are fundamentally risk averse.  Of course it will be helpful to point out why your book is adding something new or different.  But be warned, even if your breaking new ground, saying that there are no other books out there isn’t as an appealing proposition for a publisher as you might think.

Outline your credentials for writing the book.  This is no time for false modesty.  If you’ve written the book you will, by definition, know a fair amount more than the average person about your subject.

Finally, and arguably most importantly, explain what you can and will do to market your book.  Imagine you’re a publisher reading a submission.  You want to be interested in it yourself, you want to feel you know the market (it’s an area you have experience of publishing before) and someone says “I will market the heck out of this”.  There is a very good chance they can feel confident about selling most of the first print run. 

That probably doesn’t mean they break even, but it’s a good step in the right direction.

The internet provides countless opportunities for marketing your book:
- through your blog and /or website
- through twitter
- through other peoples ezines
- through article marketing
- by emailing everyone you’ve ever met (who are currently clogging up your Microsoft Office contacts)
- LinkedIn contacts and groups

But what about going a step beyond these?  After all these are mostly time-based rather than cost-based.

My top tip is to put your money where your mouth is.  Decide how much you are prepared to invest in marketing your own book and include some examples:
- placing a full page ad in a relevant trade journal or two
- sending the book to key individuals at your own expense
- even undertaking your own PR work (via a specialist book PR company)

Clearly you need to be careful that you don’t commit to something without having a clear idea of the costs involved: do that research first!

Then get a good quality envelope, print your book’s first 30 pages (or whatever is required) on good quality paper, and put a couple of drops of lemon oil in the envelope just before you close it (heck, you didn’t expect me not to leverage appealing subliminal associations did you?).

I’ll let you know how I get on…

Philip Graves

Philip Graves Getting a Book Published book, Marketing